Experts who have been involved in the Myrtle Beach real estate market for a few years have all predicted a turnaround in the next twelve months or so. But nobody has been willing to go out on a limb and be more specific on their time frame, or even what we should be looking for to prove or disprove their theories.

Well, hang onto your hats, because Price & Company Realty is ready to call the winner. Are you ready? Here it is: Price & Company Realty believes that the bottom of the market has come and gone already, and that we are now a month into a new appreciating market that may continue for years to come.

I imagine that some folks reading this will be jumping up and down with excitement right now. Others of you will fold your arms, look at us sideways, and say, “Oh, yeah? Prove it.”

Well, okay. Here are the top three reasons why we think that our market is on the move again:

• The Grand Strand is first and foremost a vacation destination (so short term rentals should be just fine). Some of these vacationers will purchase second homes here as well. The folks who can afford upscale vacations – and second homes – are predominantly not affected by the current economic bluster, nor are they affected by the subprime mortgage mess. Once the media chooses its next target, these buyers will get back to buying.
• The Grand Strand is secondly a retirement destination. The desirability of our area hasn’t changed, but the northern retirees have to sell their current property before they will purchase here. Here’s the good news. Activity here at Price & Company has picked up significantly in January and February. We had a conversation earlier this week with a broker from New York who confirmed that their January was “better than their November and December - combined!” Also, in the Detroit (the heart of the rust belt) newspaper on Friday, came the report that sales of homes and condos doubled last month over a year ago. In Detroit!! (No offense. Love ya. Mean it.) We have been waiting patiently for this dam of pent-up demand to burst. Water is now gushing through the cracks, and anyone with an ounce of foresight knows what this means.
• The wobbly leg of our local real estate tripod is investment. Many real estate investors dropped Myrtle Beach like a hot potato over the last 24 months, but are now back snooping around, looking for good deals… and they are finding them and picking off what we call the “low-hanging fruit.” Many investors are also getting involved with local investment experts who can guide them through the new Myrtle Beach marketplace. Once the low hanging fruit is gone, investor demand will continue to edge prices upward again, although the stratospheric price appreciation of 2005 is long gone.
• Nationwide, mortgage applications were up 12% last week. This may be an anomaly, or it may be a sign. How long will you wait to find out?

And, although we’ve said it over and over again, if you can ignore the media long enough to look at the facts, reports of disaster have been blown out of proportion here on the Grand Strand:

• Over the last 30 years, existing home prices have increased an average of more than 6 percent every year. This means that home values have doubled every 10 years. Try plugging those numbers into your stock portfolio.
• Total housing sales for 2007, while down from 2006, are expected to be the fifth best on record. Ever.
• The National Asociation of Realtors expects to show a 1.9 percent decrease for the year nationwide. The press might call that a “plunge,” but on a home that’s priced at the national median of $217,000, this decrease amounts to just over $4,000, or the same annual hit you took on your SUV last year.
• If you purchased your home last year, you might be upset at this slight decrease. But if you’ve owned your home for at least five years, as most folks have, you still have significant gains in value that are not in danger. Relax!

If your Chevy Suburban doesn’t have your knickers in a knot, housing shouldn’t either. Especially when it’s expected to go up 3.1 percent next year, which I promise, the value of your SUV won’t.

Think about it. Will 2008 be the “I Told You So” year where you took action, or where you wish you did?

(Thanks to www.housingmarketfacts.com for the statistics shown in the second list.)